Canada could benefit from lower immigration levels and a renewed focus on selecting highly skilled newcomers, according to recommendations from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Immigration Targets Council.
The independent council is calling on the federal government to rethink both the size and composition of Canada’s immigration system as Ottawa prepares its next Immigration Levels Plan.
Among its most significant recommendations is a gradual reduction in annual permanent resident admissions to:
380,000 in 2027
350,000 in 2028
340,000 in 2029
The council has also recommended treating temporary resident levels much more cautiously, with an eventual objective of reducing temporary residents to approximately 3% of Canada’s population.
These recommendations could become part of the broader debate surrounding the future of Express Entry, economic immigration, international students, temporary workers and Canada’s permanent residence targets.
However, applicants should understand one crucial distinction: these are recommendations from an independent policy council, not immigration targets announced by IRCC.
Why Is the C.D. Howe Institute Calling for Immigration Reform?
Canada’s immigration system expanded rapidly in the years following the pandemic, particularly through temporary immigration.
That growth has generated an increasingly complicated policy debate involving housing supply, health-care capacity, employment opportunities, productivity and Canada’s long-term demographic needs.
The C.D. Howe Institute’s Immigration Targets Council argues that Canada’s immigration strategy should be transparent and predictable while paying greater attention to the economic potential of the people being selected.
Instead of focusing primarily on achieving a particular number of admissions, the council believes greater attention should be placed on the human capital and long-term economic prospects of newcomers.
That could mean renewed emphasis on factors such as education, work experience and language ability.
Proposed Permanent Resident Targets for 2027–2029
The council’s recommended permanent immigration levels are:
| Year | C.D. Howe Council Recommendation |
|---|---|
| 2027 | 380,000 permanent residents |
| 2028 | 350,000 permanent residents |
| 2029 | 340,000 permanent residents |
These recommendations would put Canada on a gradually declining permanent immigration trajectory through 2029.
The council has argued that immigration planning should consider Canada’s capacity to successfully absorb newcomers while maintaining confidence in the immigration system.
Again, these figures should not be confused with official federal immigration targets.
The Government of Canada determines immigration levels through its Immigration Levels Plan, and Ottawa is not required to accept the council’s recommendations.
Temporary Residents Could Face Even Greater Scrutiny
The recommendations are not limited to permanent immigration.
The council has also raised concerns about the size and management of Canada’s non-permanent resident population, which includes many international students and temporary foreign workers.
It recommends that a temporary-resident population equivalent to 5% of Canada’s population be treated as a ceiling, with the longer-term goal of bringing the share down to approximately 3%.
Such a change, if eventually reflected in federal policy, could have significant implications for temporary immigration programs.
It could affect the number and composition of international students and temporary workers Canada admits, depending on how Ottawa chose to implement such a policy.
Why the Council Wants Canada to Focus on Skills
Perhaps the most important part of the recommendations is not simply how many immigrants Canada should admit.
It is who Canada should select.
The C.D. Howe Institute has repeatedly argued for a stronger emphasis on human capital in economic immigration.
This approach focuses on characteristics associated with immigrants’ ability to succeed economically over the long term, including:
- Education and qualifications
- Official-language ability
- Skilled work experience
- Earnings potential
- Adaptability and labour-market integration
The underlying argument is that Canada’s immigration system should prioritize applicants likely to contribute to long-term productivity rather than using immigration mainly as a short-term solution for individual labour shortages.
Could This Affect Express Entry?
If the federal government eventually adopted similar recommendations, Express Entry could become one of the most important areas affected.
Canada’s Comprehensive Ranking System already awards points based on characteristics such as age, education, language proficiency and work experience.
However, Express Entry has increasingly incorporated category-based selection, allowing IRCC to invite candidates based on particular occupations, sectors or French-language proficiency.
The C.D. Howe Institute’s broader policy direction favours returning greater attention to general human-capital characteristics rather than relying too heavily on narrowly targeted occupational selection.
For prospective immigrants, such an approach could make strong language results, education and high-quality skilled work experience even more important.
But no applicant should change an Express Entry strategy based solely on the council’s recommendations. Current IRCC rules remain in effect unless the federal government formally announces changes.
What About Francophone Immigration?
The council’s approach also raises an important policy debate around Canada’s use of immigration to pursue objectives beyond general economic selection.
The federal government has increasingly prioritized Francophone immigration outside Quebec, including through Express Entry category-based draws for candidates with strong French-language ability.
The C.D. Howe Institute’s policy work has argued that economic immigration should concentrate heavily on skills, earnings potential and human capital rather than allowing non-economic objectives to outweigh those factors.
That does not mean Canada’s existing French-language immigration targets have been cancelled.
They have not.
Francophone immigration remains an important component of current federal immigration policy. Any future changes would require action by the Government of Canada.
Immigration Quality vs. Immigration Quantity
The recommendations highlight an important shift in Canada’s immigration debate.
For many years, discussion focused heavily on the number of immigrants Canada should welcome annually.
Increasingly, the discussion is also about the composition and economic outcomes of immigration.
The C.D. Howe Institute argues that selecting immigrants with strong human capital can help improve productivity and long-term economic performance.
Previous Institute research has similarly advocated a transparent points-based economic selection system emphasizing education, language skills and work experience.
This approach can be summarized as a greater focus on the quality and economic potential of immigration rather than simply maximizing admission numbers.
Foreign Credential Recognition Remains a Major Challenge
Selecting highly educated immigrants does not automatically guarantee successful economic integration.
Many skilled newcomers arrive in Canada with significant education and professional experience but encounter difficulty having their foreign qualifications recognized.
This can lead to internationally trained professionals working in occupations below their skill and education levels.
The C.D. Howe Institute has therefore also called for improvements to foreign credential recognition and better ways of matching immigrants’ qualifications with Canadian employment opportunities.
This is an important part of the immigration debate because attracting skilled workers provides limited economic benefit if those workers cannot effectively use their skills after arriving in Canada.
What Could Lower Immigration Targets Mean for Applicants?
If future federal immigration plans move toward lower permanent resident admissions, competition for available spaces could increase.
That could make factors such as CRS scores, language proficiency, Canadian work experience, provincial nominations and occupation-specific eligibility increasingly important.
However, lower overall immigration targets do not necessarily mean every immigration program will experience identical reductions.
The federal government decides how available permanent residence spaces are distributed among economic programs, family reunification, refugees and other immigration categories.
For Express Entry candidates in particular, the allocation of economic immigration spaces can sometimes matter almost as much as the overall headline target.
What Could This Mean for International Students?
International students are also an important part of Canada’s temporary-resident debate.
If the federal government eventually pursued a temporary-resident population target as low as 3%, Canada could potentially maintain tighter controls on temporary immigration.
The actual impact would depend on how the government divided reductions among international students, temporary workers and other categories.
International students should therefore focus on current study permit and post-graduation immigration rules, rather than assuming that independent policy recommendations have already changed their eligibility.
What Could This Mean for Temporary Foreign Workers?
Temporary foreign worker programs could also receive increased scrutiny under a lower temporary-resident strategy.
Canada must balance employers’ legitimate labour requirements with concerns surrounding wages, domestic employment, productivity and the overall size of the temporary population.
The C.D. Howe Institute’s broader immigration research has generally distinguished between high-skilled temporary immigration and excessive reliance on lower-wage temporary labour.
This could contribute to a policy environment in which highly skilled workers continue to have opportunities while some lower-wage temporary pathways face tighter controls.
Are These Canada’s New Immigration Targets?
No.
This distinction is especially important for prospective immigrants.
The numbers proposed by the C.D. Howe Institute’s Immigration Targets Council are recommendations to the federal government.
They are not new IRCC immigration targets and do not automatically change:
- Express Entry eligibility
- CRS scores
- Provincial Nominee Programs
- Study permit requirements
- Work permit requirements
- Family sponsorship
- Permanent residence applications
- Existing temporary resident status
Applicants should continue following official IRCC requirements until the Government of Canada announces otherwise.
Canada’s Next Immigration Levels Plan Will Be Important
The recommendations arrive as Ottawa prepares its next immigration planning decisions.
Canada’s upcoming 2027–2029 Immigration Levels Plan will provide a much clearer indication of whether the federal government intends to maintain current permanent immigration levels, reduce them further or eventually move toward renewed controlled growth.
That makes the next federal plan particularly important for prospective immigrants.
Applicants should watch not only the overall permanent resident target but also how spaces are distributed among Express Entry, Provincial Nominee Programs, family immigration and other pathways.
What Should Canada Immigration Applicants Do Now?
Immigration applicants should avoid making decisions based solely on political debate or independent policy recommendations.
Instead, candidates should assess their options under programs currently available.
For Express Entry candidates, this can include improving language scores, obtaining additional qualifying work experience, exploring provincial nomination opportunities and ensuring that their profiles remain accurate.
International students and temporary workers should also pay close attention to changes affecting their specific permits and potential pathways to permanent residence.
Canada’s immigration policy is evolving, but official IRCC announcements—not think-tank recommendations—determine immigration eligibility and application requirements.
How New Jain Immigration Services Can Help
Changes in Canada’s immigration targets can influence competition, program availability and long-term permanent residence strategies.
New Jain Immigration Services can help applicants understand current Canadian immigration programs and assess pathways based on their individual circumstances.
Whether you are considering Express Entry, Canadian Experience Class, Provincial Nominee Programs, study permits, work permits, family sponsorship or Canadian permanent residence, understanding current eligibility requirements is essential.
If you are searching for an immigration consultant in Surrey, RCIC Canada, or a Regulated Canadian Immigration Consultant, New Jain Immigration Services can assist you with understanding your available Canadian immigration options.
Contact New Jain Immigration Services to discuss your Canada immigration pathway and prepare for potential changes to Canada’s immigration system.
Frequently Asked Questions
What immigration levels does the C.D. Howe Institute council recommend?
The council recommends approximately 380,000 permanent residents in 2027, 350,000 in 2028 and 340,000 in 2029.
Does Canada currently have a 3% temporary resident limit?
No. The 3% figure is a longer-term recommendation from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Immigration Targets Council, not a current federal limit.
Is Canada reducing Express Entry?
The recommendations do not themselves reduce Express Entry invitations. Future Express Entry levels will depend on decisions made by the federal government and IRCC.
Does the report recommend focusing more on skilled immigrants?
The council has emphasized selecting economic immigrants with strong human capital and long-term economic potential. C.D. Howe Institute policy work has particularly emphasized education, language proficiency and work experience.
Will occupation-based Express Entry draws end?
There has been no announcement that category-based Express Entry selection is ending. Any such change would need to be announced by IRCC.
Should international students be worried about the 3% recommendation?
The recommendation could contribute to policy discussions around temporary immigration, but it is not currently a new immigration rule. Students should follow current IRCC requirements and confirmed government announcements.
Are these recommendations official Canadian immigration policy?
No. The C.D. Howe Institute is an independent public-policy organization. Its Immigration Targets Council provides recommendations; the federal government determines Canada’s official immigration targets and policies.
